 |
| New Year |
1. Be present Vigilant in Profit Taking. Earlier this time, I chose to stay in place of EyakTek to increase in intensity its offer in place of GTSI to a build closer to my calculated intrinsic quantity. While waiting, a startle government dogfight resulted in the withdrawal of the offer (See here). I ought to maintain exited similar to the opening EyakTek offer, or even similar to it sugared the offer, but as a substitute I was greedy in place of a a small number of ultra percent. Pigs contract fat and hogs contract slaughtered, and in a jiffy I’ll maintain to stay longer in place of my thesis to be fulfilled. This time, I resolve to be closer to realize profit.
2. Focus Event-Driven Value Opportunities. Clothed in the ancient, I maintain alert too thickly on companies with the aim of are in the main undervalued with an unknown catalyst. I believe near are greater opportunities in companies undervalued suddenly as the byproduct of an event. The marketplace overreacts to these measures and on a small schedule, reverse to the mean occurs (and occurs much more quickly than in companies with the aim of are in the main undervalued and maintain been in place of quite selected time). A high-quality instance of this is Transocean, which has returned a tidy sum similar to the marketplace standard with the aim of the company’s genuine liability was far a smaller amount than to begin with feared (a conclusion with the aim of formed the basis of my thesis at this point, in black and white days similar to the event)
3. Avoid NCAVs Not Bearing Gifts. My most awful decision this time was to invest in Belzberg Technologies (original analysis here). The company was (and is) trading by the side of a stocky disregard to NCAV, but was down money employee on fist. I made the muddle up of believing with the aim of management may well go remuneration around, but I believe a periodical of their performance on the ancient a small number of quarters, as well as management’s ridiculously vague commentary (and absolute lack of a diagram in place of fixing operations), shows with the aim of this is a sinking transport. Luckily, I took a momentary skip in the routine charge (Mr. Market’s whims can help on the upside too!) to exit more than 3/4 of my perception, but still, it stings to violate Buffett’s rules 1 and 2. This time, I resolve not to invest in a company trading by the side of a disregard to NCAV forlorn – near ought to be other positives as well (like helpful remuneration, or CFO)
4. Emulate Einhorn. While I maintain thought many time on this blog, I am tremendously impressed with the level of explore David Einhorn puts into this money. It is a goal of mine to extent the same level of analytical rigour as Mr. Einhorn and this time I resolve to pick up again in with the aim of direction. (See his explore control in place of by hand by sense his put your name down for, Fooling Some of the People All of the Time).
For these carry on two, I’ll need your help!
5. Reach 1000 Subscribers. I am at present around 150, so this is a great big task. I maintain selected exciting initiatives imminent up to help complete this goal, but in the meantime, help me broaden my subscriber extent, both on twitter and RSS/Email. Forward this site’s subscription link to everybody you think would be interested (Subscribe by RSS Link; Subscribe by Email Link), and be an enthusiast of me on twitter @frankvoisin.
6. Improve the Conversation. Right in a jiffy, I contract a fate of annotations to my posts on SeekingAlpha and elsewhere, with valuable back-and-forth sandwiched between diverse commenters. One of my great big goals in place of this time is to pull the conversation to frankvoisin.Com to add to the store of in turn limited on this situate not far off from the investment ideas I maintain. So, I’ll ask you to consider commenting on this situate, even if it is simply replication your annotations at this point with the aim of you are rearrangement elsewhere!