Weekly Tech Analysis : Bears to bully Nifty below 4,830

The markets ended lower for that fifth straight week, amid global and local turbulence. The Sensex had rallied to some high of 16, 549 early this week, but erased gains and plunged to some low of 15, 765 on Friday. It finally ended at 15, 849, having a loss of 292 points (1. 8 per cent). The BSE benchmark, therefore, has shed 2, 873 points (15. 4 per cent) over the previous five weeks.

Among the index stocks, Coal India slumped nine per penny to Rs 360. Tata Steel, Jaiprakash Associates, SBI, Maruti, DLF, HDFC Bank and Jindal Steel shed five to eight percent each. Bajaj Auto, however, rallied five per cent. Bharti Airtel, BHEL and TCS were another major gainers.

As explained in the previous week, the index has sent a sell signal about the monthly, quarterly and yearly charts. The next major support seems to can be found around 15, 050-odd levels. The medium-term weekly charts indicate the index could see a steeper fall to 12, 000-odd levels. This to fill the space created in May 2009.

This week, the Sensex is likely to look for support around 15, 550-15, 350. On the upside, it is likely to manage resistance around 16, 150-16, 335.

The NSE Nifty moved in a selection of 245 points. From a high of 4, 966, it tumbled to a minimal of 4, 720, finally ending at 4, 748, with a loss associated with 98 points.

The Nifty seems to be in decline on the every day charts. It needs to break above 4, 830 to buck this pattern. Till then, the bears will have an upper hand.

This week, the Nifty will probably face resistance around 4, 840-4, 900. On the downside, it is prone to seek support around 4, 650-4, 600.